A company that lost nearly $5 billion last year is on the verge of becoming worth more than Amazon. Welcome to the strangest rally on Wall Street.
SpaceX is on course to overtake Amazon and become the world’s fifth-largest public company, just days after its IPO. Shares jumped more than 8% in premarket trading Tuesday to roughly $208.90, pushing the market cap near $2.75 trillion. The twist: the company reported a $4.94 billion net loss last year.
Picture this. A rocket company that has been public for less than a week, sitting on a multibillion-dollar loss, briefly trading hands faster than Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple combined. That is not a typo. That is Tuesday morning.
What Happened
SpaceX stock climbed about 8.5% before the bell, last changing hands around $208.90. That is more than 54% above the $135 IPO price set last week. If the gains hold, the valuation lands around $2.75 trillion, enough to leapfrog Amazon, which sits at $2.66 trillion.
For context, that would make SpaceX the world’s fifth-largest company by market value. Microsoft is at $2.95 trillion, and the top three names globally each clear $4 trillion. SpaceX went from private to top-five in a matter of trading sessions.
The volume was the wild part. More than $3 billion of SpaceX shares changed hands by 7:21 a.m. ET, several times the combined trading of Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple. Options trading on the stock was set to open as soon as Tuesday, and early activity was expected to be heavy and expensive.
The Backstory
This rally is the back half of one of the largest IPOs ever. SpaceX raised $75 billion last week, then watched its underwriters exercise the “greenshoe” option to buy more shares, lifting total proceeds to $85.7 billion.
The financials underneath are messy. SpaceX posted $18.67 billion in sales last year and that $4.94 billion net loss, a gap that widened after it merged with the money-losing AI company xAI. Most of Wall Street’s mega-cap tech names print huge profits. SpaceX is doing the opposite and getting rewarded for it anyway.
The Plan
Two forces are feeding the surge, and neither has much to do with earnings.
First, scarcity. SpaceX has a relatively small public float, so a flood of demand has nowhere to go but up. Small float plus a giant valuation equals violent moves in both directions.
Second, index inclusion. SpaceX is set for fast-track entry into the Nasdaq 100, which forces passive funds and ETFs tracking the index to buy. FTSE Russell adds the stock on June 26, MSCI on June 29. That is a fresh, mechanical wave of buying lined up on the calendar.
The Business Model Angle
Here is the pattern worth filing away: this is a narrative valuation, not an earnings valuation.
Investors are not paying $2.75 trillion for last year’s income statement. They are paying for Starlink’s recurring revenue engine, for Starship, and for a story about owning expensive, hard-to-copy infrastructure in an AI era. The cash-losing pieces get folded into the vision. If you want the deeper breakdown of how the rockets, Starlink, and AI bets actually fit together, our full SpaceX business model analysis lays it out.
The lesson for founders is uncomfortable but real. A great story plus a scarce asset can outrun the fundamentals for a while. The market will pay up for a compelling future, especially when supply is tight. The catch is that story-driven pricing is borrowed time. Eventually the income statement has to grow into the number.
The Risk
Even the people watching this rally are skeptical of it.
“This valuation makes absolutely no sense today,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank, who described the move as buyers betting that other buyers will keep pushing the price higher. That is the textbook definition of speculation, and she said so plainly.
The structural risk is the same thing fueling the gains. A small float cuts both ways. The buying pressure that sent the stock up can reverse fast once more shares hit the market. SpaceX even trimmed some of its premarket gains after announcing it would acquire software company Anysphere for $60 billion, a reminder that sentiment here can turn on a single headline.
Quick Questions
How big is SpaceX now compared to Amazon?
SpaceX is around $2.75 trillion if its gains hold, just ahead of Amazon’s $2.66 trillion. That would make it the world’s fifth-largest public company.
Wait, didn’t SpaceX lose money?
Yes. It reported a $4.94 billion net loss on $18.67 billion in sales last year, partly due to merging with the money-losing xAI. The valuation is built on future potential, not current profit.
Why is the stock moving so violently?
A small public float plus huge demand equals big swings. There simply are not many shares trading, so buying pressure moves the price hard and fast.
What happens next?
Index inclusions are scheduled. Nasdaq 100 entry is fast-tracked, FTSE Russell adds it June 26, and MSCI follows June 29, which forces passive funds to buy more shares.
The Business Model Analyst Take
SpaceX just showed every founder the power and the danger of a narrative valuation. A scarce asset wrapped in a big enough vision can punch far above its earnings, and the market will happily fund the dream before the dream pays for itself. The trick is knowing which side of that trade you are on. Build the story, but never forget that someday the income statement has to show up and pay the bill.
Source: CNBC
