To justify a $1.77 trillion valuation, Wall Street is asking investors to believe in numbers 14 years away.
Morgan Stanley is telling top investors that SpaceX could generate $3.4 trillion in revenue by 2040, a projection designed to support the $1.77 trillion valuation the company is targeting in its IPO. For context, SpaceX posted $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, alongside a $4.9 billion loss.
Picture this: you walk into a pitch meeting and the founder says, “We lost almost $5 billion last year, but trust us, in 14 years we’ll out-earn most countries.” You’d laugh them out of the room. Unless the founder is Elon Musk, the company is SpaceX, and the people making the pitch are the two most powerful banks on Wall Street. Then you lean in and take notes.
What Happened
According to a Wall Street Journal exclusive, Morgan Stanley shared an analysis with select investors on Thursday projecting that SpaceX’s revenue could hit $3.4 trillion in 2040, with adjusted EBITDA topping $2.7 trillion that same year.
The timing is no accident. SpaceX is aiming to raise around $75 billion next week in what would be the largest IPO in history. Banks routinely share sell-side projections with select investors in the days before an offering, and these forecasts are the sales brochure for that $1.77 trillion price tag.
The Backstory
SpaceX closed 2025 with $18.7 billion in revenue and a $4.9 billion loss. So how do you sell a company losing billions at a valuation that would make it one of the most valuable enterprises on Earth? You sell the curve, not the snapshot.
The nearer-term numbers from the banks already imply explosive growth. Research analysts at both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley project SpaceX revenue near $160 billion in 2028. By 2030, Goldman sees revenue exceeding $470 billion, while Morgan Stanley lands at nearly $330 billion. That’s a roughly $140 billion gap between two banks looking at the same company, which tells you how much of this is art rather than science.
The Core Development
The real story inside the projections is where the growth comes from. Both banks expect SpaceX’s AI business to supply the bulk of revenue after this year. Goldman projects the AI unit alone contributes around $322 billion in 2030. Morgan Stanley says around $190 billion.
Here’s the kicker: that division generated $3.2 billion in 2025. Goldman is essentially forecasting a 100x revenue expansion in five years.
On profitability, both banks see adjusted EBITDA around $110 billion in 2028, then $352 billion (Goldman) or $230 billion (Morgan Stanley) by 2030. And yes, the messengers have skin in the game. Goldman and Morgan Stanley snagged the top two roles among the 21 banks on the IPO, putting them first in line for hundreds of millions of dollars in fees.
The Business Model Angle
Strip away the trillion-dollar shock value and there are transferable lessons here for any founder:
Narrative is a financial instrument. SpaceX is not being priced on what it earns today. It’s being priced on a story about 2040. When your current numbers can’t justify your ask, the only bridge is a credible, structured vision of the future. The SpaceX business model has always worked this way: a cash-generating core funds a frontier bet, and the frontier bet inflates the multiple on the core.
Pivot your growth engine before the market asks you to. The rocket company’s valuation case now rests mostly on AI. SpaceX layered a new high-growth division on top of mature infrastructure, and that new layer is what bankers are selling. Mature businesses buy credibility; new divisions buy multiples.
Incentives shape forecasts. The banks publishing these projections are the same institutions collecting the biggest fee checks from the IPO. Sell-side analysts operate separately from the deal bankers, but founders should always read projections through the lens of who benefits from them.
The Risk
Let’s be honest about the math. A $3.4 trillion revenue projection 14 years out is not a forecast in any rigorous sense. It’s a target painted on the horizon. The two banks can’t even agree on 2030, with estimates $140 billion apart, and 2040 is three startup lifetimes away.
The valuation also leans heavily on an AI division that did $3.2 billion last year. If that unit grows fast but not absurdly fast, the entire investment case wobbles. Investors buying at $1.77 trillion are not paying for SpaceX as it exists. They’re paying for a version of SpaceX that does not exist yet, and may never.
Quick Questions
How much is the SpaceX IPO valuation?
SpaceX is targeting a $1.77 trillion valuation and aiming to raise around $75 billion, which would make it the largest IPO ever.
How much money does SpaceX actually make?
In 2025, SpaceX posted revenue of $18.7 billion and a loss of $4.9 billion.
Why do banks think SpaceX is worth so much?
Their projections lean on massive future growth, especially from SpaceX’s AI division. Morgan Stanley sees revenue reaching $3.4 trillion by 2040, with adjusted EBITDA above $2.7 trillion.
Who is running the SpaceX IPO?
There are 21 banks on the deal, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley holding the top two roles and standing to earn the largest share of hundreds of millions in fees.
The Bottom Line
SpaceX is about to test how much of a valuation can be built on projection rather than performance. For founders, the lesson cuts both ways. A compelling long-term narrative can unlock capital that today’s numbers never could, but the gap between your story and your income statement is debt you eventually have to pay. SpaceX earned the right to tell a 2040 story by delivering for two decades. Earn your narrative before you sell it.
