We don’t often talk about modern technology from a scientific perspective, which is really important. When we decided to analyze the topic of secure messaging applications through the lens of Porter’s Five Forces, the results were quite interesting. You’ll find some conclusions that may seem obvious, but analyzing them on a scientific level brings much more clarity to the discussion.

Telegram Proxies Diluting Supplier Power from ISPs and App Stores

Secure messaging services depend on internet providers and app stores to reach users, but Telegram’s use of proxy servers undermines these “supplier” gatekeepers, hence the growing popularity of Telegram proxy software. For example, when Iran banned Telegram in 2018 and had it removed from local app stores, millions of Iranians adopted VPNs and proxies to stay connected despite the ban. 

Many openly “vowed to use proxies to continue using Telegram,” indicating that users can route around infrastructure blocks. By leveraging proxies and alternative distribution (such as direct APK downloads or web versions), secure-messaging platforms dilute the bargaining power of suppliers – governments, ISPs, or app marketplaces have a harder time cutting off access when users can find a workaround.

Low Barriers to Entry, But Trust Takes Years to Build

The threat of new entrants in secure messaging appears mixed. On one hand, the basic technology (encryption protocols, messaging frameworks) is widely available – a small team can launch a new encrypted chat app with relative ease. Barriers to entry are low in terms of development. 

However, succeeding in this market is a different story: trust and scale take years to achieve. Established apps benefit from enormous network effects – WhatsApp’s 2.9 billion users in 2025 create a self-reinforcing advantage that a newcomer can barely dent. Likewise, Telegram’s ~900 million users have been amassed over a decade, reflecting an earned reputation for security and reliability. New entrants might pop up (and indeed many do), but convincing users to switch to an unproven platform is extremely difficult when privacy and security trust are paramount. In short, it’s easy to launch a messaging app, but very hard to build the trust and user-base needed to compete against incumbents.

Buyer Power – Picky Users, Easy Switching, and Privacy Priority

Today, if users dislike a feature or policy, alternatives are just a tap away, as competitor platforms are generally free and easy to use. This makes users very selective and focused on privacy — even a small sign of weak security can cause them to leave quickly. A clear example is the 2021 backlash against WhatsApp’s privacy policy update. 

Millions of users left the app, and Telegram gained 25 million new users in just a few weeks, as people looked for apps that better protected their privacy. Indeed, users increasingly view privacy as non-negotiable, and they will readily dump an app that compromises on it. This high buyer power forces messaging platforms to continuously cater to user preferences – from implementing end-to-end encryption to offering features like disappearing messages – since a frustrated user base can rapidly erode an app’s market share.

Private Chat Everywhere – The Threat of Substitutes

Secure messaging apps don’t just compete with each other; they also face a flood of substitute communication methods in our digital lives. Private messaging is no longer confined to standalone apps, because almost every platform now includes some messaging capability. Key substitutes include:

• Traditional Channels
  
• Social & Gaming Platforms
  
• Workplace Tools

Because private conversations are now possible across so many channels, the threat of substitutes is high. Encrypted email services, direct messages on Twitter, group chats in Zoom, or even ephemeral messaging in apps like Snapchat all erode the unique need for a separate secure-messaging app. This means WhatsApp, Telegram, and others must keep innovating to offer something beyond what these ubiquitous alternatives provide.

Fierce Rivalry Among Global Messaging Giants

Finally, competitive rivalry in the secure-messaging market is intense. The field is crowded with giant incumbents and niche upstarts all vying for user attention. A few big players dominate huge user bases: WhatsApp is the global leader, especially strong in regions like Europe, India and Latin America, while WeChat’s 1.3+ billion users dominate China. Facebook Messenger and Apple’s iMessage (the default on hundreds of millions of iPhones) further intensify the battle.