International purchases of US homes fell to their second-lowest level on record. Here is who feels it, and who quietly benefits.
Foreign buyers purchased $45.3 billion of US existing homes in the 12 months ending March 2026, down 19.1% in dollar volume and 14% in units from the year before, according to the National Association of Realtors. That is 67,100 homes, the second-lowest count since NAR started tracking the number in 2009. A weaker dollar should have pulled buyers in. It did not. Fewer visitors, tighter visas, and a cooler welcome mat did the opposite.
Picture a Florida open house that used to draw a Canadian snowbird, a Mexican investor, and a Chinese family shopping for a second home in Irvine. This year, more of those chairs sit empty. The people who staffed the US immigration and tourism funnel, the same funnel that feeds the housing market at the top, mostly stayed home.
What Happened
NAR released its 2026 International Transactions in U.S. Residential Real Estate report, built from a survey of 4,970 Realtors conducted in April 2026. The headline numbers are blunt:
- $45.3 billion in existing-home purchases by foreign buyers, down 19.1% year over year.
- 67,100 homes, down 14% from 78,100 the prior year, and the second-lowest total since 2009.
- $465,000 median price, down from last year’s record $494,400.
The buyers split into two groups. Those already living in the US as recent immigrants or visa holders bought 37,600 homes worth $21.8 billion (56% of the total). Buyers based abroad bought fewer homes, 29,500, but spent more: $23.5 billion. That gap matters, and we will come back to it.
By country, Canada led at 16% of purchases (10,700 homes, $5.2 billion), followed by Mexico at 14% (9,400 homes, $5.0 billion). China came third by volume at 11% (7,400 homes) but spent the most dollars, $7.6 billion, because Chinese buyers concentrated on higher-priced California homes. Florida stayed the top destination at 20% of purchases, with California at 19% and Texas at 12%. Notably, New York fell out of the top five, replaced by New Jersey and Georgia.
The Backstory
Here is the part the one-year headline hides: this is a retreat from a spike, layered on top of a decade-long slide.
Just one year earlier, foreign buying had jumped 44%, the first annual increase since 2017. So the 2026 drop unwinds most of that rebound. Zoom out and the picture is starker. Foreign home buying today is a shadow of the mid-2010s peak, when international money was a defining feature of gateway markets like Manhattan, Miami, and coastal California.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun tied the latest decline directly to a fall in international visitors and tourists. Fewer people flying in means fewer people touring homes, meeting agents, and closing deals. The CNBC read adds a sharper driver: the biggest drop came among highly skilled workers on H-1B and similar employment visas. Fewer skilled migrants arriving means fewer of exactly the buyers who turn a visa into a mortgage.
The Plan
What happens from here depends on two dials that policy controls, not the market.
The first is the visa and immigration pipeline. NAR found that 68% of agents worked with an international client who ended up not buying. Of those, 33% could not find a property, 28% cited cost, and 19% pointed to immigration laws or visa problems. Loosen that pipeline and resident-buyer demand can rebound quickly, because those people are already here and already earning in dollars.
The second is the welcome signal. Yun’s point about visitors is really a point about sentiment. Buyers based abroad, the group that spends the most per deal, are the most sensitive to whether the US feels open for business. A weak dollar usually lures them. This year it did not, which tells you sentiment is currently outweighing the exchange rate. That can flip fast in either direction, and it is the variable worth watching over the next two reports.
The Business Model Angle
For a housing market worth trillions, $11 billion of lost foreign spending is a rounding error on the total. But it does not land evenly, and that is where the business models live.
Real estate portals and brokerages. Companies like Zillow and Redfin make money on transaction volume, leads, and agent advertising, not on who the buyer’s passport belongs to. Foreign buyers are a thin slice of total US transactions, so the direct revenue hit is small. The real exposure is concentrated: portals and brokerages that lean into luxury and gateway markets feel a pullback in exactly the high-commission deals that pad the average. A $1 million California sale lost is worth several median deals in commission terms.
Luxury homebuilders. Here is the counterintuitive winner. Even as overall foreign demand fell, builders of high-end homes still drew international buyers. When foreign money shrinks, it concentrates upmarket. The average Chinese purchase this year worked out to roughly $1 million, versus a $465,000 overall median. Builders and brokerages positioned at the top of the market keep a disproportionate share of a smaller pie.
Vacation-rental economics. Nearly half of foreign purchases, 49%, were intended as vacation homes or rentals, versus 44% for primary residences. Fewer foreign second-home buyers means marginally less new supply flowing into short-term rental inventory in Sunbelt hotspots, which nudges the Airbnb host economics in those specific markets. It is a second-order effect, but in Florida and coastal California it is real.
Geographic concentration is the whole story. Florida at 20% and California at 19% absorb the bulk of foreign money. A national 14% decline is a shrug in Ohio and a genuine demand shock in a Miami or Irvine luxury corridor. The business exposure is not spread across America. It sits in a handful of zip codes.
The Risk
Before anyone calls this a crisis, three cautions.
First, scale. Foreign buyers are a small share of the roughly four million existing-home sales the US closes in a normal year. This report is a signal about sentiment and the top end of the market, not a driver of national home prices.
Second, the affordability myth. It is tempting to assume fewer foreign buyers means more affordable homes for locals. The research does not support that at the national level. Foreign buyers were never the reason the typical American struggled to buy. The bigger affordability lever right now is construction labor, and immigration enforcement is squeezing that supply too. Fewer workers to build homes is a real affordability problem. Fewer foreign buyers is mostly not.
Third, survey data has limits. These are Realtor-reported estimates, not deed records, and the totals swing year to year. One down year that unwinds a 44% up year is a pattern worth watching, not a trend to bet the business on.
Quick Questions
How much did foreign buying drop? Down 19.1% in dollars and 14% in units, to $45.3 billion and 67,100 homes.
Why, when the dollar was weaker? A weaker dollar should attract foreign buyers. It was outweighed by fewer international visitors, tighter visas, and cooler sentiment toward moving to or investing in the US.
Which countries buy the most? Canada and Mexico lead by number of homes. China spends the most dollars, buying pricier California properties.
Where does the money go? Florida (20%), California (19%), and Texas (12%) dominate. New York dropped out of the top five.
Does this make homes cheaper for Americans? Not meaningfully at the national level. Foreign buyers are a small, concentrated slice of the market.
The Business Model Analyst Take
The number that matters is not $45.3 billion. It is the split between the 56% of foreign buyers who already live here and the abroad-based buyers who spend the most per deal. This report is really two stories wearing one headline. The resident-buyer decline is an immigration-policy story, and it can reverse the moment the visa pipeline reopens. The abroad-buyer decline is a sentiment story, and no exchange rate fixed it this year.
For anyone whose business touches US real estate, the takeaway is not to panic about a shrinking pie. It is to notice where the remaining money pools. Foreign demand did not just fall, it concentrated: upmarket, and into a few states. The winners in a smaller foreign-buyer market are the players sitting in the luxury lane in Florida and California. Everyone selling the median home barely felt it. In a market this concentrated, geography and price tier are the entire business model.
